Emerging Issues: Housing Elements

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ABAG Presentation on Housing Elements

For the HCD Housing Element Workshops

September 2 Revision

JoAnna Bullock

Association of Bay Area Governments

joannab@abag.ca.gov

510 464-7968

ABAG overview

ABAG is the Council of Governments for the San Francisco Bay Area our mission includes strengthening cooperation and coordination among local governments We are also the region’s comprehensive land use planning organization.

ABAG’s interest in housing elements

ABAG prepares the region’s longterm forecast of land use, including jobs and housing. We don’t just look at past trends, but consider emerging trends and policies. So that the forecast is not only about how we are likely to grow, but how we should grow as we consider issues like land consumption, congestion and climate change. 

One of our responsibilities is to provide projections of and guidance on how the region will grow over the next few decades.  We are also the responsible agency for This includes allocating the state mandated Regional Housing Needs Allocation to local governments. This allocation is primarily based on our land use projections but also considers policies that state regional and local governments have been trying to address.We also prepare the Projections series, one of the most reliable predictors of Bay Area economic trends.

Housing Element Updates – Changing Times

Traditionally, housing allocations and then local housing elements have are been developed revised based simply on housing need, as determined by on forecasts of factors like population and , employment growth. , demographics. Currently, there are several changes occurring in our region that will greatly impact how and where we house our future populations. Therefore, housing element updates are a prime opportunity to address these ma jor changes that we will face in the coming decades. occurring that that will dramatically impact the region and these changes that must be addressed in housing element updates

• Long term Population growth and density. In 25 years, over nine million people will live in the San Francisco Bay Area – two million more than today. This means that by 2035 both big and small cities around the region will have relatively higher density residential and mixed use projects near their transit stations. The effect is that San Francisco will have over 950,000 residents; San Jose will have 1.4 million and Oakland over 540,000. Small inner Bay Area cities like Emeryville populations will increase too. In Emeryville’s case, its population will grow 36 percent, to over 15,000. Overall, more people will live in the urban core - 47 percent of the population versus 35 percent that live there now. Looking at housing issues more regionally, can lead to the design of specific elements that more accurately reflect the regions population changes over time.
• Aging population. In the coming decades, the number of people 65 years or older will nearly triple, totaling one quarter of the population by 2035. The number of people who are 80 years or older will increase 2.7 times. We have to insure that our housing stock will be sufficient to meet the needs of an older population. Importantly, a population that is likely to be much less mobile and more dependent on others to provide for their basic needs.  Housing elements that consider the age of residents and how housing provides access (or does not) to services can have a significant impact on quality of life for aging residents.
• End of cheap oil. It is no wonder our communities were never planned with high transportation energy costs in mind.  In 1980, a gallon of gasoline was $1.25. On Memorial Day weekend, In the year 2000, a gallon of gasoline in California cost $1.67; a mere 42 cents higher than twenty years earlier and one third less in constant dollars. Memorial Day weekend, 2008, a gallon of gas was $4.14. Over the span of 8 years, the price of gasoline soared. Yet, at the turn of the century, the price of gas had barely budged in twenty years. Now, things are different.  We don’t really know what gas will cost in the year 2035, but most people expect prices to continue to grow. The end of cheap oil is likely to mean that people will not be able to afford a 90-minute, one-way commute. More of them will need transportation alternatives to the car. Housing elements can be a means to start to support this change in live/work practices.
• Climate change. In the Bay Area, climate change could put San Francisco and Oakland airports under water if unprotected by new levies. Large portions of Richmond, Emeryville, Foster City, Palo Alto, Mountain View, Redwood City, Menlo Park, San Jose, Newark, Fremont, San Leandro and Hayward, among others, could be immersed in the San Francisco Bay. In the Bay Area, 50 percent of our carbon emissions come from the transportation sector alone. Consequently, the amount of driving we do is directly linked to emissions. Consider climate change in the design of the housing element as it directly impacts the amount of driving required of residents.

Opportunity: Priority Development Areas

A primary goal for housing element updates should be the creation of more dense ”complete communities” where people can walk, bike, or take transit to their destination will decrease dependency on vehicles, vehicle miles traveled and green house gas emissions. Communities designed to be “complete” fall into “Priority Development Areas” (PDAs) that FOCUS – a voluntary, incentive-based program is targeting to encourage focused growth and direct investment to priority areas.

• The four regional agencies partnering on the FOCUS effort are working to develop a program of funding for local governments undertaking priority area development.
• Cities that have PDAs, present a key opportunity for siting future housing, as most of these areas are in existing downtowns, near jobs and transit
• Local governments that successfully plan for sufficient housing w ithin their PDAs will become eligible for regional capital dollars. The HCD grants and the regional transportation plan funds are two such sources of capital funding. Estimated HCD funds for the region amount to $324 million and MTC has designated $60 million in expanded TLC funds for the PDAs.
• The key criterion measure to receive transportation related funding is the reduction of vehicle miles traveled. Supporting criteria will include things like community improvement, housing choice, transportation choice, land-use compatibility, and sustainability.

Resources for jurisdictions

• Housing Report. ABAG publishes an annual report that discusses housing issues of importance to the San Francisco Bay Area. The 2008 report, San Francisco Bay Area Housing Needs Plan, 2007-2014, explains the Regional Housing Needs Allocation (RHNA) process and outcomes.
• Housing Production Survey. The survey is a companion to the Housing Report. It provides information on new housing recently constructed in the Bay Area.
• Online Toolkit. The Housing Element Tool Kit is designed to be a resource to help local government staff as they work their way through the update process. Our goal is not duplicate information that is already available, but instead to provide a single location for accessing those resources.